Cincinnatus17

0xb4c4ad...478441

Smart Score

Win Rate

67.4%

Total P&L

+$11.5K

Trade Count

995

Sharpe Ratio

0.20

Sortino Ratio

71.72

Max Drawdown

374.0%

ROI

5.2%

Profit Factor

1.35

Kelly Fraction

0.175

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

032.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	BUY	63.0¢	23.889	Jul 4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	BUY	64.6¢	3,912.16	Jul 4
Will Joey Chestnut win Nathan's Famous Hot Dog 2025?	BUY	91.0¢	2,542.9	Jul 3
India strike on Pakistan before August?	SELL	98.0¢	398.67	Jul 3
Pakistan strike on India before August?	SELL	97.7¢	146.12	Jul 3
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?	SELL	91.8¢	750	Jul 3
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	BUY	88.0¢	164	Jun 19
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?	BUY	71.0¢	6,000	Jun 16
India strike on Pakistan before August?	BUY	79.0¢	290.13	Jun 8
India strike on Pakistan before August?	BUY	79.0¢	108.55	Jun 6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?	SELL	94.6¢	1,500.72	May 27
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?	SELL	94.6¢	543.16	May 26
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?	SELL	94.6¢	10.423	May 26
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?	SELL	94.6¢	16.913	May 26
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?	SELL	94.6¢	447.818	May 26
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?	SELL	70.0¢	300	May 25
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?	SELL	97.9¢	1,045.3	May 25
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?	BUY	55.9¢	1,045.3	May 25
Pakistan strike on India before August?	BUY	80.0¢	9.77	May 24
Pakistan strike on India before August?	BUY	80.0¢	100	May 24

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing32.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.79

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)29.7%

Win Consistency54.5%

Profit Factor0.85

Drawdown Resilience0.68

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.68

Weekly Sharpe est.0.52

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