Gambling-Machine

0xec47b7...6bf4e4

Smart Score

Win Rate

51.0%

Total P&L

+$26

Trade Count

184

Sharpe Ratio

0.54

Sortino Ratio

0.92

Max Drawdown

140.2%

ROI

3.6%

Profit Factor

3.94

Kelly Fraction

0.381

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

030.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	BUY	16.0¢	6.25	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	61.0¢	1.49	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	53.0¢	1.887	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	73.0¢	1.37	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	71.6¢	1.397	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	79.7¢	1.255	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	70.0¢	1.429	Mar 4
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	SELL	84.0¢	2.87	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	SELL	70.0¢	1.69	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	BUY	59.0¢	1.695	Mar 4
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	BUY	80.0¢	1.25	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	93.0¢	1.075	Mar 3
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	BUY	80.0¢	1.25	Mar 3
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	BUY	80.0¢	2.5	Mar 3
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	SELL	99.8¢	7.27	Mar 3
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	BUY	96.8¢	5.165	Mar 3
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	BUY	95.0¢	2.105	Mar 3
VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?	SELL	6.0¢	20	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	93.0¢	4.301	Mar 3
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?	SELL	53.0¢	5	Mar 3

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing30.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.67

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)27.6%

Win Consistency60.3%

Profit Factor0.79

Drawdown Resilience0.64

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.64

Weekly Sharpe est.0.48

Trading Activity184 trades · 21 active days

P&L Calendar

$97d profit14d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

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