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lwatts

0x1abd5f...89de82
#4455 overall · top 21.15%
Smart Score
38
Win Rate
91.9%
Total P&L
+$359
Trade Count
101
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Sortino Ratio
0.02
Max Drawdown
610.8%
ROI
7.2%
Profit Factor
9.20
Kelly Fraction
0.819
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
037.5/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?BUY99.9¢145.395Mar 5
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?BUY99.8¢71.533Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?BUY99.9¢48.628Feb 27
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?BUY99.6¢14.378Feb 27
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?BUY99.9¢97.647Feb 24
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?BUY99.7¢64.192Feb 23
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?BUY99.9¢85.105Feb 22
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?BUY99.7¢136.413Feb 14
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?BUY99.5¢81.517Feb 11
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?BUY99.9¢81.971Jan 30
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?BUY99.9¢58.888Jan 30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?BUY99.4¢12.394Jan 24
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?BUY98.2¢33.982Jan 22
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?BUY2.6¢213.077Jan 20
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?BUY95.7¢76.75Jan 13
Trump out as President in 2025?BUY99.8¢1.172Dec 27
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY98.7¢6.697Dec 25
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?BUY99.9¢1.151Dec 4
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?BUY84.0¢5.94Nov 26
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?BUY95.0¢6.168Jul 26

Analytics Showcase

Full analytics →
Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%6%< 10%10–20%20–30%30–50%9%50–70%70–80%80–90%80%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing37.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.06
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.1%
Win Consistency70.1%
Profit Factor0.98
Drawdown Resilience0.79
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.79
Weekly Sharpe est.0.60
Trading Activity23 trades · 22 active days
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$1,1601d profit21d loss
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Showcase profile — live & interactive · 52-week window

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