niwlson

0xf457b3...a68778

Smart Score

Win Rate

84.6%

Total P&L

+$3

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.43

Sortino Ratio

2.71

Max Drawdown

300.0%

ROI

0.0%

Profit Factor

23.96

Kelly Fraction

0.811

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

038.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March?	BUY	99.5¢	12.06	Mar 5
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	BUY	98.2¢	12.22	Mar 5
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	SELL	98.8¢	15.1	Mar 5
Trump out as President by March 31?	SELL	98.1¢	22.24	Mar 5
Trump out as President by March 31?	BUY	98.3¢	22.248	Feb 27
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	BUY	99.3¢	15.106	Feb 27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 4?	BUY	98.4¢	18.78	Jan 4
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 4?	BUY	99.5¢	18.09	Jan 4
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 23?	BUY	98.6¢	18.448	Dec 22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23?	BUY	99.8¢	18.036	Dec 22
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 17?	BUY	99.9¢	22.142	Dec 16
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 17?	BUY	99.7¢	14.042	Dec 16
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on November 18?	BUY	99.7¢	17.061	Nov 17
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November 18?	BUY	99.7¢	19.057	Nov 17
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November 5?	BUY	99.9¢	36.016	Nov 4
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?	SELL	97.8¢	36.79	Nov 4
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?	BUY	98.0¢	36.796	Oct 30
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	SELL	99.9¢	36.09	Oct 30
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY	99.8¢	36.092	Oct 12
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?	BUY	98.2¢	36.018	Sep 9

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing38.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.13

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)35.2%

Win Consistency42.3%

Profit Factor1.01

Drawdown Resilience0.81

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.81

Weekly Sharpe est.0.62

Trading Activity21 trades · 11 active days

P&L Calendar

$2761d profit9d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

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