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PhoenixWager

PhoenixWager

0xb3d773...6f7504
#4275 overall · top 20.30%
Smart Score
38
Win Rate
72.8%
Total P&L
-$7.2K
Trade Count
3,994
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Sortino Ratio
0.44
Max Drawdown
33.3%
ROI
-1.5%
Profit Factor
0.82
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
038.4/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)BUY87.9¢113.816Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY97.7¢207.39Mar 4
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)BUY88.0¢113.578Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY97.6¢102.459Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 3?SELL99.9¢402.87Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?BUY96.2¢384.072Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 3?BUY99.3¢201.42Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 3?BUY99.3¢201.452Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY96.6¢206.98Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?BUY80.0¢250Mar 3
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?SELL97.3¢155.45Mar 1
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?BUY95.0¢407.737Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?BUY98.5¢203.118Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?BUY98.3¢203.488Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?BUY98.2¢203.666Mar 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY74.6¢511.601Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?BUY96.8¢381.488Feb 27
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?SELL97.9¢376.88Feb 27
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?BUY97.7¢326.162Feb 26
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?BUY96.6¢210.123Feb 25

Analytics Showcase

Full analytics →
Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%< 10%10–20%4%20–30%11%30–50%25%50–70%16%70–80%17%80–90%22%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing38.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.11
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.9%
Win Consistency56.0%
Profit Factor1.00
Drawdown Resilience0.81
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.81
Weekly Sharpe est.0.61
Trading Activity2,376 trades · 146 active days
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$54,22416d profit111d loss
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Showcase profile — live & interactive · 52-week window

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Preview data · updated daily · full equity curve & more at accrue.com/platform