Sorena

0xdff2cf...002439

Smart Score

Win Rate

53.1%

Total P&L

+$40

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

1.45

Sortino Ratio

6.61

Max Drawdown

130.0%

ROI

10.5%

Profit Factor

9.77

Kelly Fraction

0.477

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

051.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	64.0¢	2.813	Mar 5
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL	81.0¢	1.31	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	BUY	20.3¢	4.926	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	BUY	56.0¢	20	Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	BUY	57.0¢	1.754	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	47.0¢	5	Mar 3
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL	76.0¢	2.7	Mar 2
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	5	Mar 2
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	SELL	65.0¢	2.63	Mar 2
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	SELL	66.0¢	5	Feb 28
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	99.7¢	5	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	53.4¢	2.42	Feb 28
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	39.7¢	4.584	Feb 28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL	82.0¢	1	Feb 28
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	BUY	63.0¢	5	Feb 28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	74.0¢	2.703	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	82.6¢	2.421	Feb 28
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	SELL	0.4¢	80.11	Feb 28
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	8.9¢	16.66	Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?	SELL	99.0¢	10	Feb 28

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing51.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.84

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)47.0%

Win Consistency60.6%

Profit Factor1.34

Drawdown Resilience1.08

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.08

Weekly Sharpe est.0.83

Trading Activity82 trades · 22 active days

P&L Calendar

$777d profit14d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

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