W3-Geopolitica

0xd60f22...9ef595

Smart Score

Win Rate

40.0%

Total P&L

+$1

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

9.94

Sortino Ratio

46.12

Max Drawdown

8.5%

ROI

0.7%

Profit Factor

2.44

Kelly Fraction

0.236

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

064.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	60.0¢	2.35	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	54.0¢	5.407	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	22.0¢	7.7	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	34.0¢	1.01	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	24.0¢	8.708	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	25.0¢	6.7	Mar 4
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	74.0¢	22.865	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	18.0¢	22.222	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	21.0¢	12.01	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	64.0¢	7.04	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	64.0¢	0.43	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	65.5¢	12.89	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	36.0¢	5.77	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	36.0¢	19.53	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	55.0¢	1.24	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	31.0¢	22.548	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	26.9¢	24.357	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	66.0¢	21.6	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	BUY	65.0¢	1.908	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	64.0¢	14.156	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Active64.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.57

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)59.1%

Win Consistency60.0%

Profit Factor1.69

Drawdown Resilience1.36

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.36

Weekly Sharpe est.1.04

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