0x1abe13...cb6497

Smart Score

Win Rate

35.0%

Total P&L

+$368.2K

Trade Count

1,000

Sharpe Ratio

-1.04

Sortino Ratio

-3.75

Max Drawdown

590.0%

ROI

34.6%

Profit Factor

3.75

Kelly Fraction

0.257

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

020.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	SELL	92.3¢	2,796.93	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	82.0¢	4,756.098	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	84.3¢	5,928.461	Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	95.0¢	5,263.158	Mar 3
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	20.3¢	1,057.33	Mar 3
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?	SELL	95.0¢	2,299.65	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	SELL	78.1¢	3,161.62	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	65.0¢	1,249.61	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	SELL	94.0¢	2,456.33	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	SELL	98.9¢	5,128.65	Mar 2
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	18.9¢	1,057.33	Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	BUY	97.5¢	5,128.66	Mar 1
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	18.8¢	2,653.558	Mar 1
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	23.5¢	6,381.575	Mar 1
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	20.7¢	966.802	Mar 1
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	90.9¢	1,100.368	Mar 1
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	BUY	84.8¢	1,178.824	Mar 1
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	90.5¢	1,105.211	Mar 1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	1,249.619	Mar 1
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	BUY	71.5¢	2,796.94	Mar 1

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing20.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.11

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)18.3%

Win Consistency34.9%

Profit Factor0.52

Drawdown Resilience0.42

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.42

Weekly Sharpe est.0.32

Trading Activity1,000 trades · 42 active days

P&L Calendar

+$349,9963d profit39d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue