0xcaa6E755B486B3cdD2EACD495B59De310053c615-1767669785183

0xcaa6e7...53c615

Smart Score

Win Rate

47.8%

Total P&L

+$211

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-1.14

Sortino Ratio

-1.48

Max Drawdown

710.1%

ROI

6.8%

Profit Factor

2.13

Kelly Fraction

0.254

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

011/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	60.0¢	166.667	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	75.0¢	52.7	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	75.0¢	8.05	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	75.0¢	8.05	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	75.0¢	40	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	75.0¢	52.996	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	75.0¢	523.32	Mar 4
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?	BUY	16.0¢	63.938	Mar 4
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	33.0¢	31	Mar 4
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	27.0¢	62.926	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	30.3¢	56.1	Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	56.11	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	37.0¢	50	Mar 4
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	130.267	Mar 4
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	29.8¢	67.167	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	81.0¢	35.59	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	85.0¢	35.59	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	77.0¢	71.182	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	75.0¢	73.08	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	69.3¢	73.089	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing11

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.60

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)10.0%

Win Consistency43.5%

Profit Factor0.29

Drawdown Resilience0.23

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.23

Weekly Sharpe est.0.18

Trading Activity62 trades · 14 active days

P&L Calendar

$2116d profit6d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue