0xf8074a...2de625

Smart Score

Win Rate

15.9%

Total P&L

+$18

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.42

Sortino Ratio

65.69

Max Drawdown

198.2%

ROI

6.5%

Profit Factor

1.23

Kelly Fraction

0.030

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

019.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	21.0¢	19.048	Mar 5
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	SELL	6.0¢	25	Mar 5
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL	11.0¢	21.42	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	BUY	30.5¢	3.279	Mar 3
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	BUY	4.1¢	96.712	Mar 3
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL	64.0¢	6.51	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL	64.0¢	1.75	Mar 3
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	15.0¢	20	Mar 2
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	15.0¢	6.667	Mar 2
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	34.0¢	2.941	Mar 2
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	5	Mar 2
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	29.0¢	3.448	Mar 2
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY	0.3¢	333.333	Mar 2
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY	0.3¢	333.333	Mar 2
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY	11.7¢	25.641	Mar 1
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	19.0¢	10.526	Mar 1
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	19.8¢	10.101	Mar 1
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	19.0¢	10.526	Mar 1
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	BUY	2.3¢	429.885	Mar 1
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	38.0¢	13.158	Mar 1

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing19.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.08

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)17.9%

Win Consistency26.8%

Profit Factor0.51

Drawdown Resilience0.41

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.41

Weekly Sharpe est.0.32

Trading Activity97 trades · 14 active days

P&L Calendar

$952d profit12d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue