Alicia

0xf1899a...768e47

Smart Score

Win Rate

69.8%

Total P&L

+$15.9K

Trade Count

994

Sharpe Ratio

0.24

Sortino Ratio

1.03

Max Drawdown

1386.6%

ROI

3.4%

Profit Factor

1.57

Kelly Fraction

0.254

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL	46.0¢	1,132.34	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL	46.0¢	250	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL	46.0¢	2,546.95	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	SELL	83.0¢	6,000	Mar 4
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?	BUY	23.1¢	200	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	81.0¢	6,000	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	45.0¢	2,000	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	82.8¢	2,999.99	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL	60.0¢	3,999.99	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	80.2¢	416.47	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	80.2¢	331.95	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	80.2¢	126.263	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	80.2¢	2,125.31	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL	42.0¢	21.429	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL	42.0¢	49.281	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	40.0¢	2,000	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	54.0¢	1,105.45	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	54.0¢	2,894.543	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	SELL	96.0¢	67.11	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	SELL	96.0¢	10.417	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.42

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.5%

Win Consistency62.2%

Profit Factor0.67

Drawdown Resilience0.54

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.54

Weekly Sharpe est.0.41

Trading Activity994 trades · 88 active days

P&L Calendar

$224,63925d profit63d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue