Donny.P

0x819081...7bb247

Smart Score

Win Rate

74.2%

Total P&L

+$39.9K

Trade Count

3,645

Sharpe Ratio

0.58

Sortino Ratio

3.92

Max Drawdown

145.8%

ROI

6.8%

Profit Factor

7.94

Kelly Fraction

0.649

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

047.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	62.0¢	102	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	79.8¢	50	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	66.0¢	30	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	66.0¢	70	Mar 5
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	98.6¢	400	Mar 5
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting?	SELL	98.6¢	9.89	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL	33.0¢	5	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	65.0¢	98.25	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	73.0¢	50	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	80.0¢	45	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	80.0¢	5	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	89.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	BUY	36.0¢	6	Mar 4
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	77.5¢	78.749	Mar 4
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY	16.2¢	100	Mar 4
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	79.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	92.0¢	200	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	87.0¢	50	Mar 4
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?	SELL	98.7¢	2.927	Mar 4
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	BUY	74.0¢	95	Mar 4

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing47.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.63

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)43.6%

Win Consistency73.9%

Profit Factor1.25

Drawdown Resilience1.01

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.01

Weekly Sharpe est.0.77

Trading Activity3,645 trades · 69 active days

P&L Calendar

$23,04629d profit40d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue