goldschmidt.lux

0x7524af...18de23

Smart Score

Win Rate

15.8%

Total P&L

+$3.0K

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-2.55

Sortino Ratio

-3.09

Max Drawdown

966.3%

ROI

121.3%

Profit Factor

5.88

Kelly Fraction

0.131

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

012.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	0.6¢	16,666.667	Mar 5
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	0.4¢	25,000	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	29.7¢	1,684.855	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	25.0¢	2,000	Mar 3
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?	BUY	21.0¢	476.302	Mar 2
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	303.471	Mar 2
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?	BUY	39.5¢	253.062	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	5,000	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	10,000	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	10,000	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.2¢	5,000	Mar 2
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	BUY	30.0¢	333.333	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	BUY	0.1¢	2,000	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	BUY	0.8¢	625	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	4.7¢	855.778	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY	4.6¢	217.391	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	BUY	1.3¢	384.615	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	BUY	13.0¢	769.231	Feb 25
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	10.0¢	1,000	Feb 25
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during the State of the Union address?	BUY	27.6¢	36.266	Feb 24

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing12.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.69

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)11.5%

Win Consistency31.6%

Profit Factor0.33

Drawdown Resilience0.26

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.26

Weekly Sharpe est.0.20

Trading Activity27 trades · 7 active days

P&L Calendar

$2,4820d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue