Itsreallygonnahappen

0xe4bbf3...0a4a9a

Smart Score

Win Rate

64.3%

Total P&L

+$659

Trade Count

169

Sharpe Ratio

-0.17

Sortino Ratio

-0.84

Max Drawdown

979.0%

ROI

5.2%

Profit Factor

1.56

Kelly Fraction

0.232

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

017.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?	BUY	93.0¢	100	Mar 5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	BUY	68.9¢	200	Mar 5
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?	SELL	25.5¢	81.71	Mar 5
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	BUY	58.0¢	127	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	SELL	99.8¢	180	Mar 5
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	SELL	42.2¢	227.19	Mar 4
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?	BUY	84.9¢	100	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	82.0¢	27	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	82.0¢	13	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	83.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	83.0¢	20	Mar 4
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	BUY	29.2¢	171.465	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	97.0¢	465	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	SELL	97.0¢	85	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	BUY	92.0¢	100	Mar 3
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?	BUY	44.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	BUY	91.5¢	110	Mar 3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY	61.0¢	10	Mar 2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL	99.8¢	45.7	Mar 2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL	99.8¢	8.3	Mar 2

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing17.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.95

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)15.7%

Win Consistency33.3%

Profit Factor0.45

Drawdown Resilience0.36

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.36

Weekly Sharpe est.0.28

Trading Activity169 trades · 32 active days

P&L Calendar

$6,8605d profit27d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue