ivned

0x652e22...ebef62

Smart Score

Win Rate

25.4%

Total P&L

+$3

Trade Count

191

Sharpe Ratio

-0.12

Sortino Ratio

-0.43

Max Drawdown

108.2%

ROI

0.2%

Profit Factor

1.01

Kelly Fraction

0.002

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

05.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.7¢	34.014	Mar 5
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	BUY	76.0¢	35.842	Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY	48.0¢	41.667	Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	24.6¢	28.455	Mar 1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	35.5¢	20	Mar 1
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	57.0¢	3.509	Mar 1
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?	SELL	1.6¢	115.71	Mar 1
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	2.5	Mar 1
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	61.0¢	1.639	Mar 1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	50.0¢	20	Mar 1
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL	19.0¢	66.67	Mar 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	27.0¢	48.148	Feb 28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY	29.0¢	20.69	Feb 28
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY	54.0¢	74.074	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	46.0¢	32.609	Feb 17
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?	BUY	2.8¢	35.714	Feb 10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY	9.0¢	66.667	Feb 10
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	SELL	39.0¢	57.76	Feb 10
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	BUY	5.9¢	16.949	Feb 7
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	BUY	28.9¢	57.76	Feb 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing5.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.32

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)5.4%

Win Consistency28.9%

Profit Factor0.15

Drawdown Resilience0.12

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.12

Weekly Sharpe est.0.09

Trading Activity191 trades · 55 active days

P&L Calendar

$54512d profit42d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue