karpaty

0x80a263...c029ca@nerazzurri42110

Smart Score

Win Rate

25.0%

Total P&L

+$11

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.06

Sortino Ratio

-0.13

Max Drawdown

40.1%

ROI

0.3%

Profit Factor

1.02

Kelly Fraction

0.004

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

035.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY	3.5¢	877.889	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY	9.5¢	735.541	Mar 5
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	SELL	1.1¢	446	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	BUY	2.6¢	1,146.154	Feb 25
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading?	BUY	2.0¢	1,002.5	Feb 25
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	SELL	4.2¢	501.43	Feb 17
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	SELL	3.4¢	501.43	Feb 17
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	SELL	4.2¢	590	Feb 17
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	BUY	5.0¢	1,592.86	Feb 16
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?	SELL	25.5¢	966.49	Jan 30
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?	BUY	27.6¢	966.493	Jan 30
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL	69.0¢	532.2	Jan 30
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY	63.0¢	532.206	Jan 29
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	SELL	70.0¢	187.14	Jan 29
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	SELL	70.0¢	434.71	Jan 29
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina	BUY	20.0¢	1,250	Jan 29
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY	40.0¢	621.85	Jan 28
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-28?	BUY	38.0¢	657.895	Jan 28
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	SELL	4.2¢	500	Jan 23
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	SELL	6.3¢	400	Jan 23

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing35.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.97

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)32.7%

Win Consistency50.0%

Profit Factor0.93

Drawdown Resilience0.75

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.75

Weekly Sharpe est.0.57

Trading Activity29 trades · 16 active days

P&L Calendar

$7435d profit11d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue