kocinakn

0x99e85a...095066

Smart Score

Win Rate

39.4%

Total P&L

+$47.3K

Trade Count

425

Sharpe Ratio

0.30

Sortino Ratio

2.24

Max Drawdown

89.6%

ROI

34.5%

Profit Factor

9.56

Kelly Fraction

0.353

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

039/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more?	SELL	97.8¢	8,702.17	Nov 12
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?	SELL	2.8¢	2,338.46	Nov 9
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?	SELL	57.6¢	1,647.03	Nov 7
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?	SELL	99.6¢	8,209.59	Nov 7
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?	SELL	99.6¢	5.02	Nov 7
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?	SELL	99.6¢	100	Nov 7
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?	SELL	99.6¢	130.48	Nov 7
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points?	SELL	99.0¢	3,943.26	Nov 7
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points?	SELL	99.0¢	63.939	Nov 6
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points?	SELL	99.0¢	33.89	Nov 6
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?	SELL	99.6¢	6,264.37	Nov 6
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?	SELL	99.6¢	2.73	Nov 6
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?	SELL	57.0¢	12.61	Nov 6
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?	SELL	57.0¢	7.018	Nov 6
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%?	SELL	3.7¢	4,819.71	Nov 6
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more?	SELL	0.1¢	8,339.69	Nov 6
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%?	SELL	0.1¢	2,099.75	Nov 6
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%?	SELL	0.1¢	2,000	Nov 6
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL	99.5¢	658.88	Nov 6
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL	99.5¢	81	Nov 6

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing39

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.15

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)35.5%

Win Consistency42.4%

Profit Factor1.01

Drawdown Resilience0.82

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.82

Weekly Sharpe est.0.62

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue