millau

0xf3e6ba...3f54c8

Smart Score

Win Rate

36.6%

Total P&L

+$97

Trade Count

1,917

Sharpe Ratio

0.43

Sortino Ratio

7.86

Max Drawdown

42.3%

ROI

1.8%

Profit Factor

1.36

Kelly Fraction

0.098

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

048.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	SELL	16.0¢	29	Mar 5
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	BUY	18.0¢	29	Mar 5
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	SELL	15.0¢	33	Mar 5
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY	16.0¢	33	Mar 5
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	SELL	15.0¢	33	Mar 5
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL	17.4¢	29	Mar 5
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY	16.0¢	33	Mar 5
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	17.6¢	29	Mar 5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL	12.0¢	43	Mar 5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY	11.9¢	43	Mar 4
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	SELL	1.0¢	667	Mar 4
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	SELL	2.0¢	257	Mar 4
BitBoy convicted?	BUY	14.0¢	2.29	Mar 4
BitBoy convicted?	BUY	14.0¢	7.19	Mar 4
BitBoy convicted?	BUY	14.0¢	7.52	Mar 4
BitBoy convicted?	BUY	14.0¢	18	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 5?	SELL	4.0¢	45.73	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 5?	SELL	4.0¢	3.043	Mar 4
BitBoy convicted?	BUY	14.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL	7.2¢	75	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing48.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.65

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)43.8%

Win Consistency43.8%

Profit Factor1.25

Drawdown Resilience1.01

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.01

Weekly Sharpe est.0.77

Trading Activity1,917 trades · 37 active days

P&L Calendar

$18212d profit25d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue