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predictTiny

0x7ce6fb...f416a3
Smart Score
33
Win Rate
17.4%
Total P&L
-$295
Trade Count
4,000
Sharpe Ratio
1.53
Sortino Ratio
13.65
Max Drawdown
65.8%
ROI
-0.9%
Profit Factor
-0.10
Kelly Fraction
1.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
032.7/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?SELL3.6¢100Mar 5
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?BUY3.6¢50Mar 5
Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?SELL6.0¢2.24Mar 5
Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?BUY6.0¢2.24Mar 5
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?BUY94.0¢20Mar 5
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?SELL90.8¢20Mar 5
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?BUY90.8¢20Mar 5
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?SELL5.0¢4.34Mar 5
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY5.0¢4.34Mar 5
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?BUY3.7¢50Mar 5
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?SELL10.2¢20Mar 5
Will Reed Sheppard win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?SELL7.5¢13.54Mar 5
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?SELL16.0¢20Mar 5
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?SELL88.0¢20Mar 5
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?SELL1.1¢20Mar 5
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest RatesSELL5.0¢20Mar 5
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?SELL88.0¢20Mar 5
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?SELL4.0¢20Mar 5
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?SELL5.2¢100Mar 5
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY5.2¢100Mar 5

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%53%< 10%26%10–20%20–30%30–50%50–70%70–80%9%80–90%7%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing32.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.80
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)29.8%
Win Consistency65.6%
Profit Factor0.85
Drawdown Resilience0.69
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.69
Weekly Sharpe est.0.52
Trading Activity4,000 trades · 14 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$3346d profit8d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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