serholst

0x0bc53e...94db85

Smart Score

Win Rate

64.3%

Total P&L

-$71

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.19

Sortino Ratio

-0.24

Max Drawdown

74.9%

ROI

-2.1%

Profit Factor

0.84

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

028.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?	BUY	83.3¢	88.045	Mar 5
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	BUY	43.0¢	23.256	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	95.0¢	186.716	Mar 2
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	BUY	72.0¢	90	Mar 1
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	SELL	99.9¢	27.2	Mar 1
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	BUY	89.0¢	71.2	Mar 1
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	SELL	13.0¢	18.5	Mar 1
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	BUY	24.0¢	62.5	Mar 1
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	BUY	85.7¢	156.87	Feb 28
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	BUY	71.8¢	100.002	Feb 28
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	83.2¢	84.841	Feb 27
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	BUY	84.0¢	83.333	Feb 27
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	84.9¢	117.719	Feb 27
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	50	Feb 27
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?	SELL	3.0¢	70.24	Feb 27
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	BUY	84.1¢	67.579	Feb 26
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?	SELL	99.9¢	56.91	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	BUY	97.5¢	215.036	Feb 25
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2	SELL	99.9¢	209.87	Feb 25
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2	BUY	81.0¢	209.877	Feb 25

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing28.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.58

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)26.2%

Win Consistency65.5%

Profit Factor0.75

Drawdown Resilience0.60

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.60

Weekly Sharpe est.0.46

Trading Activity64 trades · 21 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,9693d profit16d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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