Sillobear

0x59aa7f...48b711

Smart Score

Win Rate

36.4%

Total P&L

+$3

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.24

Sortino Ratio

3.59

Max Drawdown

499.2%

ROI

0.4%

Profit Factor

1.02

Kelly Fraction

0.006

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

019/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-06?	BUY	6.0¢	50	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	59.0¢	25.424	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL	63.0¢	9.61	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	56.0¢	8.929	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	40.0¢	16.54	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	30.2¢	16.548	Mar 1
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?	SELL	98.0¢	5.68	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	99.8¢	20.4	Mar 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	52.0¢	9.615	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	49.0¢	20.408	Feb 28
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?	BUY	88.0¢	5.682	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	25.0¢	40	Feb 9
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	BUY	14.0¢	35.714	Feb 3
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY	27.0¢	22.222	Jan 24
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	BUY	10.0¢	40	Jan 24
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	0.1¢	3,000	Dec 10
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	BUY	22.2¢	31.503	Dec 1
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?	BUY	28.0¢	17.857	Nov 26
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	BUY	8.7¢	68.966	Nov 25
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	BUY	36.0¢	5.556	Nov 22

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing19

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.04

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)17.3%

Win Consistency31.3%

Profit Factor0.49

Drawdown Resilience0.40

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.40

Weekly Sharpe est.0.30

Trading Activity52 trades · 27 active days

P&L Calendar

$1605d profit22d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue