The-Defect

0xac6a1c...d22ed3

Smart Score

Win Rate

85.5%

Total P&L

+$8.4K

Trade Count

3,385

Sharpe Ratio

0.35

Sortino Ratio

12.19

Max Drawdown

3665.5%

ROI

5.2%

Profit Factor

18.14

Kelly Fraction

0.808

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

052.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	95.1¢	52	Mar 5
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	BUY	83.0¢	12.54	Mar 5
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	BUY	83.0¢	29.3	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	93.0¢	96.74	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	93.0¢	1.075	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	93.0¢	360.96	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	93.0¢	287.37	Mar 5
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	60.0¢	6.77	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	93.0¢	53.85	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	92.0¢	53.75	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	90.0¢	5	Mar 5
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	BUY	84.0¢	70.44	Mar 5
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	BUY	83.0¢	6.02	Mar 5
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	60.0¢	5	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	79.0¢	5	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	89.0¢	15.9	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	65.0¢	12.5	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	89.0¢	9.09	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	90.0¢	402.12	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	SELL	90.0¢	1.111	Mar 5

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing52.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.87

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)47.4%

Win Consistency56.1%

Profit Factor1.35

Drawdown Resilience1.09

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.09

Weekly Sharpe est.0.83

Trading Activity3,385 trades · 35 active days

P&L Calendar

$29,7848d profit27d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue