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ToTheWindow

0xdf903e...ba41f0
Smart Score
29
Win Rate
38.4%
Total P&L
+$481
Trade Count
869
Sharpe Ratio
1.19
Sortino Ratio
3.45
Max Drawdown
366.3%
ROI
2.9%
Profit Factor
1.54
Kelly Fraction
0.134
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
029/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY99.2¢64.543Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?BUY92.0¢200Mar 5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY97.0¢239.01Mar 5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY97.0¢47.417Mar 5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY97.0¢23.56Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?BUY95.0¢100Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?BUY94.0¢151Mar 5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY97.5¢139.02Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?SELL99.8¢922.78Mar 5
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?BUY99.0¢512.121Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?SELL95.7¢530Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?SELL98.6¢0.39Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?BUY86.9¢86Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?SELL98.7¢76Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?BUY83.7¢33Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?SELL98.6¢27.61Mar 4
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?BUY81.9¢75Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?SELL98.7¢52Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY96.5¢47.03Mar 4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?BUY96.7¢455.125Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%23%< 10%7%10–20%19%20–30%38%30–50%4%50–70%70–80%4%80–90%4%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing29

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.59
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)26.4%
Win Consistency62.4%
Profit Factor0.75
Drawdown Resilience0.61
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.61
Weekly Sharpe est.0.46
Trading Activity869 trades · 49 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$1,76415d profit34d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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