xiaosdiuao

0x9dbe77...15053d

Smart Score

Win Rate

62.5%

Total P&L

+$25

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.63

Sortino Ratio

-0.50

Max Drawdown

866.7%

ROI

0.8%

Profit Factor

86.59

Kelly Fraction

0.618

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

027/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	98.8¢	160	Mar 5
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	BUY	97.5¢	162.103	Feb 9
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	BUY	98.4¢	158.049	Feb 1
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026?	BUY	98.6¢	155.517	Jan 27
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	BUY	95.5¢	150	Jan 21
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	BUY	92.0¢	130	Jan 15
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL	1.5¢	130	Jan 14
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	1.7¢	130	Jan 12
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL	96.2¢	140	Jan 12
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY	97.2¢	140	Jan 9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	BUY	99.9¢	137.827	Dec 30
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL	96.8¢	140	Dec 29
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY	96.1¢	140	Dec 28
Maduro out in 2025?	SELL	3.7¢	150	Dec 23
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY	2.9¢	150	Dec 21
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	SELL	98.4¢	130	Dec 17
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	98.6¢	130	Dec 15
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?	SELL	0.8¢	111.11	Dec 5
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY	0.9¢	111.111	Dec 4
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL	98.3¢	130	Dec 3

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing27

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.49

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)24.6%

Win Consistency50.0%

Profit Factor0.70

Drawdown Resilience0.57

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.57

Weekly Sharpe est.0.43

Trading Activity36 trades · 36 active days

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